Modeling Disruptions to Sex Trafficking Networks with Other Forced Illegal Activities

Author: Clark, Michael; Sharkey, Thomas; Ayler, Tonique; Forliti, Teresa; Friedman, Joy; Mariotti, Mikki; Nelson, Christine & Martin, Lauren

Abstract: Victims of sex trafficking are often forced to participate in a variety of legal and illegal activities, including selling commercial sex, drug trafficking, committing theft, and committing fraud. We build an operational model of a sex trafficking network whose victims are forced to participate in multiple revenue-generating activities that are criminalized. This model was built based on the knowledge of experts who have lived experience or work closely with those with lived experience. This expertise helps to verify modeling assumptions and provides preliminary data to populate the model. We then extend the modeling approach to understand how disruptions to the sex trafficking network, such as those that disrupt different criminal activities, may affect the revenues of the trafficker. This extension not only helps to understand the importance of disrupting the commercial sex market, but it also helps to understand how a trafficker may react after such a disruption and how they may force victims to commit other criminal activity. For sex trafficking networks operating primarily in the nickel and dime commercial sex market and whose victims have substance use disorders, our analysis demonstrates that there could be a significant rise in theft to compensate for lost revenue due to disruptions of trafficking operations in the commercial sex market.

Keywords: sex trafficking, forced criminality, mathematical modeling, operations research